The Flatness continues. There are no swells to mention, no waves to report, and little hope for our short term forecast. That harsh reality will keep most of our boards dry today as we dream about "just one more" winter swell. Windswell on our east facing shores will be coming down over the next few days but should still offer rough windslop in the 3-5 foot range at the better exposed locations. Select breaks could pick up some of this energy wrapping in at tiny to small levels if you know where to look, but it's probably not worth it. A poorly aimed northwest swell is pushing by to the north of the state, possibly giving up a few sets on our north and northwest facing shores thanks to angular spreading, but the odds are very low, so don't expect anything more than 1-3 foot. Upper West shores will stay flat at 0-3 foot, possibly picking up some wrapping windswell. Southerly flatness is only 0-2 foot with absolutely no swell to mention. An insignificant northwest swell is expected around Wednesday with a stronger reinforcement likely Thursday. There are low odds that we could see some west-northwest action kicked up by Super Typhoon Rammasun but that won't be until after next weekend. Details to come...
Wind & Tide Info
The easterly tradewinds will begin fading down into the 12-16 mph range today, dropping further into Tuesday. Low tide at Kahului was 0.6 foot at 4:33am early this morning, rising slightly to a high of 0.7 foot at 6:56am, then fading again to 0.3 foot at 12:37pm, rising through the afternoon to 2.0 foot at 8:58pm this evening.
Maui Weather
As that surface ridge north of the state weakens today into Monday, so will the tradewinds. Light and variable land and sea breezes should take over, very likely pushing over more vog spewing out from Kilauea on the Big Island. Scattered showers are likely on our windward and mauka areas over the next several days.
NORTH PACIFIC: As is typical this time of year, there are still no significant swells in the water or on the charts in either hemisphere, leading to an extended period of relative flatness. A strong zonal jetstream is setting up in the North Pacific, pushing over Japan along the 40º parallel and it is modelled to take aim at our islands over at least the first half of the forecast period. However, it doesn't look like there will be any swell producing lows during that time. A fast-moving low is pushing off of Japan today that could intensify as it crosses the dateline Tuesday. If this occurs, we would see a northwest to north-northwest swell arriving around Thursday or Friday, but it's too early for speculation, especially over potential wave heights. At the moment it looks like most of the energy would miss the state, so don't get your hopes up. Spinning far to the west of the state about 500 miles south of Okinawa, Super Typhoon Rammasun is tracking north while NOT aiming any of its 135-165 mph winds toward Hawai`i. The storm is weakening and should get caught up in the jetstream before dissipating completely. There are low odds that the storm could reinvigorate to possibly send us some swell, but the models don't show that happening. However, swell kicked up over the next few days could reach our shores near the end of the upcoming weekend and into the following work-week. More details to come as any of these storms and their associated swells develop.
SOUTH PACIFIC: The South Pacific has been painfully quiet recently and there aren't any swells on their way toward any Hawaiian shores, although we may see the tiny 0-2 foot background swell typical of summer. The odds are exceptionally low, but a storm spinning up in the eastern South Pacific looks like it will aim a fetch toward our islands from the southeast, possibly resulting in a rare southeasterly swell arriving around the end of the upcoming weekend. If this actually occurs, the Big Island would block most of the swell, but if you know where to paddle out for that direction... well, you know. We'll keep our eye on it. The good news is that the Billabong Pro Tahiti should get some decent waves. Not to be forgotten, a pair of lows tracked up into the Tasman Sea over the past few days but the swell produced probably won't make it far past Fiji. If any of that energy does make it to our shores, it would likely arrive around the end of the upcoming weekend as well, upping the odds a little. The storm track will stay fairly zonal under New Zealand through the period, so not much action will get aimed toward our south shores aside from background swell. It could be worse... enjoy what we get.
Nothing but windswell. Again. Our east facing shores will see the only source of surf today provided by a small to moderate easterly windswell around 3-5 foot, but it is on the way down. We should still see a few more days of minor windswell, but an approaching surface ridge around Tuesday is expected to temporarly weaken the typical trades while replacing them with local land and sea breezes from the southeast. Get ready for another round of vog, especially if you have any breathing problems. North and northwest facing shores will stay flat to tiny at 1-3 footwith no swell of mention other than the easterly windswell. The better exposed breaks may pick up waist to chest-high sets wrapping in, but don't count on it. Upper West shores will also stay flat at only 0-2 foot. And finally, you guessed it, our south facing shores are flat at 0-2 foot. There are very low odds that we may see a little bump on our north shores Sunday, but anything that shows up will be pretty lame as it would barely be considered an edge-pass. Better odds for back-to-back northwest swells arriving Wednesday and Thursday. Super Typhoon Rammasun is raging just east of the Phillipines aiming nearly all of its energy north, but there is a slight chance that the storm will reintensify as it gets caught up in the storm track and takes aim at our islands. More details to come as that storm develops. Nothing is expected out of the South Pacific but a strong storm modeled deep in the Eastern South Pacific has the potential for sending something our way, but whatever it produces would be heavily shadowed. At least there is some hope.
Wind & Tide Info
The easterly tradewinds will drop a little today but will stay around 15-20 mph through the day, fading a little more Sunday while swinging more to the east-northeast. A single flat low tide at Kahului will be 0.0 foot at 11:23am late this morning, rising through the day to a single high tide of 2.2 foot at 7:55pm this evening.
Maui Weather
The wind gradient between a persistent surface ridge north of the state associated with a high pressure will continue the breezy tradewinds through the weekend, but it is on the way down. Windward shores and slopes may see a few isolated showers. Light and variable winds are expected next week as that ridge moves over our isalnds... and another round of vog.
No forecast update Saturday... Please check back Sunday.
SOUTH PACIFIC: I guess we shouldn't be surprised that it's flat. We can hope that the long summer ahead will offer swells of epic proportion and consistency, but the reality is that summer surf on Maui stinks. For those who have forgotten that fact, just visit your favorite break to see how flat it is. A tiny background swell may be found at our best exposed breaks, but most shores will remain flat at only 0-2 foot and I wouldn't expect anything more than a weak and mushy thigh-slapper at best. The monster storm that produced last weeks swell left the South Pacific battered and bruised but the jetstream is slowly shaping up again. Storm activity will be focused in the Tasman Sea and it looks like only two minor gales will try sending up some southwesterly action to our shores. As most of you know, this is not a favorable area for Hawaiian surf production, as much of the energy gets lost while passing by the hundreds of south seas islands on its journey to our beaches, not to mention the long distance. The first of these gales is already on the water and fading, if anything reaches Hawai`i it will be around next weekend. The second low will push up under Tasmania over the weekend but is expected to fade out without sending up much of a swell. But that's all the hope we have, at least for the moment.
NORTH PACIFIC: Our northern shores are also mainly flat at 0-2 foot although select breaks could see a choppy and tiny windswell wrapping in for you die-hards. High pressure north of the state will maintain strong easterly tradewinds that will keep our east facing shores under a moderate 3-5 foot windswell through the next several days, so at least there is something for us to ride. A weak low pressure system set up near the dateline and pushed a minor NW (320-350º) swell but it was not aimed well toward us and much of this energy will miss Hawai`i. Any swell that does make it to our shores should arrive late in the day Saturday into Sunday at tiny to small heights, possibly holding into Monday. A better pattern is modeled to take shape around mid-week, but its still too early to discuss. Do what you can to survive the Flatness, it shouldn't last too long.
Surf Report 
