Nothing but windswell again today. East facing shores should see a slight rise into the 2-5 foot range today as the tradewinds increase a notch. Our north and northwest facing shores will stay flat as a lake at 0-2 foot except for those breaks that are able to pick up the wrapping easterly windswell at tiny to small heights. Upper West shores should stay flat at 0-2 foot as well. Tiny background swell is expected today coming in only around 0-2 foot, but the best breaks may see a few extra inches. The windswell should rise to moderate levels as we move into the weekend but it will fade around Sunday. A gale set up near the dateline a few days ago that sent a minor swell train to the east but most of it will likely miss Hawai`i, although we may see a tiny to small northwesterly edge-pass arriving over the weekend if we're lucky. The northern jetstream is slowly shaping up and several insignificant northwest swells could pop up over the period under light trades but we'll have to wait until midweek for any of that. The South Pacific, on the other hand, still looks unfavorable for any Hawaiian surf production with most of its energy focused in the Tasman Sea. At least there is finally some hope.
Wind & Tide Info
The tradewinds will swing a little more to the east-northeast today while staying around 15-20 mph with stronger gusts likely. The direction should return to the east tomorrow and into the weekend. High tide at Kahului was 1.1 foot at 2:55am late last night, dropping to a low of -0.6 foot at 9:45am this morning, rising again to 2.5 foot at 5:44pm early this evening.
Maui Weather
High pressure north of the state will keep the tradewinds blowing strong through the weekend and into the first half of the upcoming week. Shower activity should stay on the windward shores and slopes but nothing significant is anticipated.
SOUTH PACIFIC: I guess we shouldn't be surprised that it's flat. We can hope that the long summer ahead will offer swells of epic proportion and consistency, but the reality is that summer surf on Maui stinks. For those who have forgotten that fact, just visit your favorite break to see how flat it is. A tiny background swell may be found at our best exposed breaks, but most shores will remain flat at only 0-2 foot and I wouldn't expect anything more than a weak and mushy thigh-slapper at best. The monster storm that produced last weeks swell left the South Pacific battered and bruised but the jetstream is slowly shaping up again. Storm activity will be focused in the Tasman Sea and it looks like only two minor gales will try sending up some southwesterly action to our shores. As most of you know, this is not a favorable area for Hawaiian surf production, as much of the energy gets lost while passing by the hundreds of south seas islands on its journey to our beaches, not to mention the long distance. The first of these gales is already on the water and fading, if anything reaches Hawai`i it will be around next weekend. The second low will push up under Tasmania over the weekend but is expected to fade out without sending up much of a swell. But that's all the hope we have, at least for the moment.
NORTH PACIFIC: Our northern shores are also mainly flat at 0-2 foot although select breaks could see a choppy and tiny windswell wrapping in for you die-hards. High pressure north of the state will maintain strong easterly tradewinds that will keep our east facing shores under a moderate 3-5 foot windswell through the next several days, so at least there is something for us to ride. A weak low pressure system set up near the dateline and pushed a minor NW (320-350º) swell but it was not aimed well toward us and much of this energy will miss Hawai`i. Any swell that does make it to our shores should arrive late in the day Saturday into Sunday at tiny to small heights, possibly holding into Monday. A better pattern is modeled to take shape around mid-week, but its still too early to discuss. Do what you can to survive the Flatness, it shouldn't last too long.
After what everyone is calling the best trials event on record, things have slowed down at the end of the road over the past couple of days. The swell has been hovering in the 3-4ft (1-1.5) range, the winds have stayed true offshore and the sun has been shining, making it easy to slip into the idyllic Tahitian lifestyle of surfing, eating fish and sneaky afternoon naps.
Most of the trials surfers have fled the scene, bar Jamie O’Brien and Bruno Santos who will take their place in the main event after their trials triumph (Check the Video). The top 45 are drifting in and the only thing on their mind is, “Will it get as big as the trials?” Early swell forecasts indicate a slow start to the waiting period but things can change very quickly in the South Pacific.
The champ Fanning is here. Parko is here. Taj is kicking around and a big group of the Aussies came in last night. Defending champion Damien Hobgood hasn’t withdrawn from the event despite fracturing his shoulder at Teahupoo two weeks ago and will give himself every opportunity to mend before round one kicks off.
