Today won't offer much action on any shore as the northwest to north swell fades further. We may be able to see a tiny bump arriving overnight but it wouldn't amount to much. Our north and northwest facing shore should only be around the 2-5 foot range today and whatever does roll through won't hold much power. Upper West shores should be near flat at only 1-3 foot. The east facing breaks may still see weak windswell around 2-4 foot but it should not be expected and won't be worth much effort. South facing shores will stay flat at only 0-2 foot with no real swell to mention.
The broad and strong low far to the west-northwest of Hawai`i continues to develop as it tracks to the east. A significant fetch has been produced aimed fairly well toward our islands but the peak of the swell has been aimed more the southwest of the state. We should still see a near warning level west-northwest swell lighting up our exposed west and northwest facing shores, although island shadowing will be a major factor. This energy should arrive late Tuesday into Wednesday and still has the potential of raising the warning flags. A decent low far to the south of Hawai`i produced what should be an advisory level south swell arriving Wednesday as well. The combination of these two swells should produce some fairly large surf along our south and west facing shores and potentially dangerous conditions. The Christmas Island buoy has been decommissioned and may never be sponsored again, so we have only the models and satellites to trust. Personally, I believe that Thursday will be "the day", but we'll just have to see what happens. Another low pushing northeast into our swell window southeast of New Zealand may give us another smaller south swell that would arrive around the middle of next week if we're lucky, but it shouldn't be anothing to get excited over. Back to the North Pacific, the storm producing this next WNW is modeled to peak today and begin tracking in a more east-northeastly direction toward the Gulf of Alaska, taking better aim toward the Mainland, however, a split cell may continue to drive toward Hawai`i, reaching rather close to the state around Thursday. Another low is forecast to develop just east of Japan around Wednesday to follow a zonal west to east track aimed well toward Hawai`i, potentially producing another good northwest swell arriving over the weekend. More details to come...
Wind & Tide Info
The east-northeasterly tradwinds will continue around 10-15 mph today, increasing slightly Tuesday before fading again Wednesday. The Maui Tide Report for today is: High tide at Kahului was 2.1 foot at 12:37am late last evening, dropping through the day to a single low tide of 0.1 foot at 5:03pm, rising through the evening to a high of 2.2 foot at 1:09am overnight.
Maui Weather
We should see rather dry conditions under a moderate tradewind pattern today although some windward showers may pass over some areas. Another front will approach the state late Tuesday into Wednesday that will weaken the tradeflow again but should return once again Thursday, probably carrying increased showers over windward and mauka areas through the end of the week. The models are hinting toward the front stalling before it is able to reach Kaua`i so the trades may not completely disappear. Another front is forecast for the weekend, so the tradewinds will likely weaken yet again as we enter the weekend, however, this front looks like it will be quite weak. An upper-level trough east of the state is producing stronger winds at Haleakala's summit, prompting a wind advisory effective through 6pm this afternoon.
Partly cloudy, 77.0°F (25.0°C), wind is from the northeast at 16.1 gusting to 19.6 mph (14 gusting to 17 kt) (Last Updated on Feb 8 2010, 10:54 am HST)
